Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World Hardcover – 7 May 2024

This is easily my pick for nonfiction book of the year. I thought I understood Bayes Theory but after reading the book, there was so much more insight to it than I imagined. I particularly enjoyed reading about the brain’s prediction mechanism and how it relates to Bayes. The book managed to convey what I consider to be a complex topic in a very readable and enjoyable manner.

Reading this clear and entertaining book made me update my prior view that Bayes' Theorem was of probably of fairly limited use. Tom Chivers makes a convincing case that it is of fundamental importance to nearly all our predictions and decision making. I really enjoyed reading the book and feel much wiser for the experience.

I like it

This book is a great read. The topic is well explained and even entertaining, with many real-life examples. I would recommend it to anyone interested in an intuitive explanation of Bayes' theorem.However, the author occasionally interjects personal opinions on irrelevant matters (like his ability to perform well on tests or his ancestors) with sentences such as "If you are like me...." He also makes some comments that I found shocking about sensitive topics like race and eugenics. The author seems to be trying to justify the unjustifiable and uses the names of prominent figures, such as Bertrand Russell, to normalize these views. For instance, Russell is somehow equated with Dalton, who is known for his controversial theories on racial hierarchy.While I agree with mentioning researchers working on the topics as a reference, the author places significant weight on authority, which he justifies through Bayes' theorem. Although it might be "rational" to give more weight to well-known scientists, this approach contradicts the scientific method, which warns against placing individuals on a pedestal. Scientists, after all, are human.These issues occur only in a few passages. Apart from that, the book is excellent. It is well-explained, easy to follow, and entertaining, featuring examples ranging from simple (coin flipping) to complex (human behavior). The book is also highly informative and motivated me to explore some of the research mentioned.

I enjoyed this book on Bayes Theorem and its applications primarily because it's very readable, laced as it is with humour and plentiful examples.What surprised me was the range and depth of those examples; he has the audacity (and earns the right) to explore the philosophy of it all.You might learn much here and be promoted to think further.