The Coming Wave

Mustafa Suleyman and Michael Bhaskar have written an excellent book, "The Coming Wave." Unlike many authors who project unbridled optimism, the authors strike two notes simultaneously: one of inevitability and the other of caution and concern. They divided the book into four sections, which they call 'Homo Technoligicus,' 'The Next Wave,' 'States of Failure,' and 'Through the Wave.' They devote the first section to explaining how waves of technological innovation have transformed humanity for thousands of years. Even the slightest pause will convince anyone of this truism. Since we fashioned stone tools centuries ago, humans have innovated, changing the world and society. The next wave will create changes at an exponential rate, a topic they discuss. When I was a child, we did not possess direct dialing telephones, and now the mobile phone often appears to extend our brains. They discuss artificial intelligence and its impact–now and in the future. A person growing up now will live a different life than we do today. When will machine intelligence overtake human intelligence? Most people cannot perform the most straightforward calculations and resort to a calculator. No one knows of Trachtenberg's system of speed mathematics anymore! The book's third section focuses on the dangers of this advancing wave of technology: misinformation, disinformation, cyberwar, and the changing nature of war, amongst others. Yet, as the authors emphasize, technological advances are improving our lives–at least, the lives of those with access to the benefits. Technology does not benefit a starving person. Unlike most authors who present us with an overtly sunny view of these advancements, Mustafa Suleyman and Michael Bhaskar acknowledge that the sunlight warms us but can also burn us. The book's fourth section focuses on the necessity for responsible containment. It proposes ten steps (or means) by which governments, society, and corporations can work together to contain the dangers this new 'machine technology' poses to society while retaining the benefits. They end with a provocative question: how will the nature and meaning of humanity change in the coming decades? The book is excellent, well-written, and accessible to everyone, including the lay reader. It is a book that many people must read to educate themselves on current and future developments in AI and synthetic biology. People must read the book now. In five years, it will be outdated.

The Coming Wave is a great read that takes the reader through history of revolutionary technologies. The authors grapple with the impacts of past tech, like steam engines, textile mills, the automobile, the challenges and opportunities they provided. Contrasting these with the anticipated impact of AI, they argue that technological adoption will not only be faster but also more profound than ever before. The authors point out that instead of focusing on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), the final form of AI, we should be focusing on Artificial Capable Intelligence ( ACI), the form of AI that will start impacting humanity way before AGI arrives and will wreck havoc if we don't prepare for it. The beginning talks about Pessimism Aversion, the idea that "humanity will figure it out" without knowing how exactly that would play out, especially when most people don't have a complete grasp on how revolutionary these upcoming technologies can be. An example the authors share is related to the affordability and accessibility of modern DNA synthesizers have become and what that entails, and yet most people seem to be dismissive to any pessimism or warnings. The authors then discuss previous technological waves, think steam engines, textile mills, the automobile, air travel, the internet, etc. and how humanity dealt with them. They explain that the overall trajectory indicates that things will be the same as before, but the impact will be much faster than society's adaptive capabilities. An example here is of how passenger and pedestrian safety laws were developed to meet the demands of increasing car traffic on the streets of cities, and how today's governments and institutions may not be able to adapt to the coming wave of AI tech as fast as passenger safety laws did, thus describing the containment problem. Part 1 of the book speaks of the containment problem, discussing why the wave of technologies need to be contained. They discuss the nuclear containment of the previous century, something that I too thought of as an example of "containment is possible." But the authors do a great job of explaining why that is the case and how that won't apply to the coming wave. Part 2 of the book dives into various other technologies that are on the horizon, which may get the boost they need thanks to AI, such as Synthetic Biology, Robotics, Quantum Computing, Nuclear Fusion, etc. This is followed Part 3, describing how all this will impact society at large, their ability to concentrate power in the hands of those who hold power, think surveillance tech superpowered by AI, while also fragmenting power through decentralized control by empowering individual groups with equally powerful and accessible tools thus creating opportunity for destabilization. The section ends by talking about how humanity has to walk the thin line of not ending up as a dystopian civilization but also avoiding the collapse of society through stagnation, i.e. by stalling technological development and not utilizing the advantages and benefits of the upcoming technologies to solve pressing matters like climate change, terminal illness, etc. Part 4 suggests solutions to this coming wave, including regulation, international cooperation, and changes required to culture and discourse. Overall, the book is a great starting point for anyone who's curious about AI and its potential impacts. It's written in a easy to understand, jargon less language making it accessible to everyone and with a storyteller's flair that should keep you engaged for long periods. The two notable drawbacks are that, first, some of the solutions seem idealistic, and second, the speculation of future events that tend to sway between hyper-utopian or hyper-dystopian extremes, which I'm sure are a real possibility but its speculative nature begs for some moderation. Nonetheless, a great read, highly recommended.

Well written. AI can have immense benefits and needs to be regulated to reach it full potential in an ethical manner. We need the smartest brains working in this area for the coming years!

A bit boring this book is...

#The Coming Wave by Mustafa Suleyman with Michael Bhaskar. #Non fiction A fascinating book on Artificial Intelligence, the good, the bad , the ugly sides of AI, it's enormous benefits but not without peril is the theme of this book. The author Mustafa Suleyman, an influential AI pioneer is currently the CEO, Microsoft AI. Lucidly written without high sounding jargons, the author argues that the proliferation of AI could bring massive transformation in the lives of people but warns that without restraint it could turn out to be catastrophic. The word "containment" finds mention a zillion times across many chapters in the book. Containment could happen through self control by the players and regulation by the Governments- both of which presently has not seen much traction. The EU AI act which is in force from 2021 has not been very effective either. China currently is miles ahead of other countries in AI. The US, a few European countries and India are behind them. It was heartening to see India being mentioned. It is based on the number of patents, papers published and peer reviews in journals. The author sees the AI proliferation inevitable and containment neccesary but difficult to happen in the current world and it's ecosystem. A drastic change is required. A grim view really. An excellent read. Deserves a 5 star. Giving 4.5.It is repetitive in many parts. Tested my patience sometimes. ☺

The beginning is genuinely engaging, with sharp insights and fascinating comparisons that make you stop and think. Unfortunately, the book quickly gets lost in endless repetitions. The same points are made over and over again. Tiring and boring. Too often it slips into a self-congratulatory tone, and at times feels hypocritical: Suleyman criticizes the system, but he is also very much part of it. I lack concrete suggestions at the end. A book with a brilliant opening that could have been much stronger if it had been more concise and less self-indulgent.

I don’t know what is going on with ordering books lately. They are coming dirty and scratched… this came with bird waste on it and it was not clean at all I had to through away the cover…

For someone not involved in the world of AI, the book was very enlightening.

The Coming Wave: AI, Power and Our Future** by Mustafa Suleyman offers a clear, insightful look at how emerging technologies are reshaping society. Suleyman combines deep technical understanding with ethical reflection, showing both the opportunities and risks of the AI revolution. It’s a well-balanced and thought-provoking read that challenges us to prepare responsibly for a rapidly changing future.

Os autores se esmeraram em proporcionar ao leitor uma análise realmente multifacetada do que realmente está por trás de tecnologias convergentes, onde, sem dúvida alguma a IA tem uma espécie de papel central, como indutor de ouras como as biotecnologias e computação quântica. Apesar do cenário meticulosamente construído de forma aterradora em dados momentos, considero essencial conhecer a grande sobreposição de ondas tecnoeconômicas (ao estilo Carlota Perez) que estão por erodir ainda mais, as fronteiras das nações, privacidade e democratização do acesso a tecnologias com potencial tão profundo. Não é um livro de tecnicalidades. Vale a pena, apesar de soar um pouco repetitivo no argumento global do livro e de poder ser percebido como um continuum do livro do fórum econômico mundial que toca no mesmo diapasão.